12-15-2002


From: SLEJF sobacine@sri.lanka.net



Policy measures taken so far by European Union countries to curb their
emissions of greenhouse gases fall well short of enabling the EU to meet its
obligations under the Kyoto climate change protocol, latest projections
show. But additional measures under discussion, if fully implemented, as
well as use of emissions trading or other instruments could still ensure
that the EU complies with its target.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU is required to cut its combined emissions
of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases (GHGs) to an average of 8%
below 1990 levels in the years 2008 to 2012.

A "burden-sharing" agreement between the 15 EU Member States has imposed
legally binding limits on how much each can emit within this overall target.


The latest projections provided by Member States show that existing policies
and measures - those already being implemented at domestic or European level
- will yield a total EU emissions cut of 4.7% by 2010. This is 3.3
percentage points short of the Kyoto requirement.

"Existing measures will not be sufficient for the EU to reach its Kyoto
target," concludes a report on the projections prepared by the European
Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air and Climate
Change.

The accuracy of the projections is subject to uncertainties over the
methodologies used and whether existing or planned measures will be fully
implemented.

Most of the projected 4.7% decrease from existing measures would be due to
Germany, Sweden and the UK cutting emissions by more than they are required
to do under the burden-sharing deal - something which cannot be taken for
granted.

If these three countries merely met their burden-sharing targets instead of
"over-complying", the overall EU emissions decrease by 2010 would be minimal
at only around 0.6%.

Based on policies and measures implemented so far, all of the 12 other
Member States are projected to have emissions in 2010 above their
burden-sharing targets.

The projected exceedances range from 3.4 percentage points for Denmark up to
33.3 percentage points for Spain.

Better prospects with additional measures

In practice, the EU and most Member States are planning additional policies
and measures to limit emissions. Assuming that all of those under discussion
will be fully implemented and will have the effects expected of them, the
total EU emissions cut projected is 12.4% - well beyond the 8% decrease
required by Kyoto.

Even under this "additional measures" scenario, however, at least five
Member States - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain - would
still exceed their burden-sharing limits. (Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal and
Sweden have yet to specify emissions savings from any additional policies
and measures they are considering).

These exceedances would be more than compensated by "over-compliance" by
Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the UK.

However, such over-achievement can, again, not be assumed since it is not
required. If these six countries only achieved their targets without doing
more, the total EU emissions cut would be 6.2% - still leaving a shortfall
of 1.8 percentage points.

Besides implementing policies and measures, countries can also use some or
all of the Protocol's mechanisms - emissions trading, joint implementation
and the clean development mechanism - to meet their emissions targets. A
further option is to take into account the sequestration of carbon by
forests, soils and agriculture.

An internal EU emissions trading scheme proposed by the European Commission
will be discussed by EU environment ministers at their meeting on 9-10
December.

Little information is available yet on the extent to which EU Member States
intend to make use of these possibilities to help meet their emissions
targets, however. Consequently the report, Greenhouse gas emission trends
and projections in Europe, does not assess the contribution that these
options could make to achieving EU compliance with the Kyoto target.

As reported by the EEA in April, EU GHG emissions fell by 3.5% between 1990
and 2000, the latest year for which complete data are available.

The latest projections show that without additional measures, possibly
combined with use of the Kyoto mechanisms and/or carbon sequestration,
further reductions up to 2010 will be relatively small.

Transport is the fastest-growing source of EU GHG emissions, largely because
of rapid increases in road transport of both passengers and freight.

While most sectors in the EU cut their GHG emissions between 1990 and 2000,
those from transport rose by nearly 20%. Based on existing measures, this
increase is projected to reach 28% by 2010.

By contrast,

     *    EU GHG emissions from energy supply and use (excluding
transport) are projected to be 16% below 1990 levels in 2010 on the basis of
existing measures and 20% lower with additional measures. However, EU
targets for increasing renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP)
are unlikely to be met with existing measures alone.

     *    Based on existing measures, EU GHG emissions from
agriculture are projected to fall to 7% below 1990 levels in 2010. This
would be due to continuing reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and
implementation of the EU nitrates directive, resulting in reductions in
fertiliser use and the number of cattle.

     *    EU GHG emissions from the waste sector are projected to
decrease by about 60% between 1990 and 2010 on the basis of both existing
and additional measures. This cut would be mainly due to implementation of
the EU directive on landfilling of waste.

The report shows that five countries in central and eastern Europe that are
expected to join the EU in 2004 are on track to meet their own Kyoto
commitments on the basis of existing policies and measures alone, according
to the most recent information they have provided. These are the Czech
Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and the Slovak Republic. The other five
countries in the region did not provide projections.

Poland and Hungary are required to reduce their emissions by 6% while the
others have the same -8% target as the EU.

The full report and a summary are posted on the EEA website at
. Printed copies will be
available on request from next month.

Tables and graphics giving further details of the trends and projections can
be found in the online version of this news release at
http://org.eea.eu.int/documents/newsreleases/GHG-en.

Notes for editors

     *    The Kyoto Protocol, which is expected to enter force during
2003, will control industrialised countries' emissions of carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three fluorinated
industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The EU is responsible for around 24% of
industrialised countries' man-made emissions of the six gases.

     *    Policies and measures are regulatory, negotiated or economic
instruments at EU or national level which have the effect of reducing
emissions. Examples include energy-efficiency legislation, the voluntary
agreement between the European Commission and the car industry on reducing
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, and energy/carbon taxes.

     *    Concern over the accuracy of the combined projections
provided by Member States has arisen because of differences between the
results of these and of separate EU-wide projections. Preliminary EU-wide
projections for energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which account for
about 80% of total EU GHG emissions, show an increase of 4% up to 2010 while
the aggregated Member State projections based on existing measures see a
decrease of 2%. The main reason for this is that Germany projects a
substantially larger decrease for itself than the EU-wide study does. The
source of the difference requires further analysis.

     *    The report serves to support, complement and provide
additional analysis for the European Commission's annual evaluation report
under the EU greenhouse gas emissions monitoring mechanism (Council Decision
1999/296/EC). The Commission will publish its report shortly at this
address: .

     *    The EU has agreed that the accession countries' emissions
will not be counted towards its -8% Kyoto target even after these countries
join the EU.


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